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Bush, but lost the presidency in the electoral college by a count of Even this count was suspect, dependent on the tally in Florida, where many minority voters were denied the vote, ballots were confusing, and recounts were mishandled and manipulated. The choice of their leader came not from the citizens of the nation, but from lawyers battling for five weeks. The final decision was made not by million voters, but by a majority of the unelected U.


While Gore won as much as two-thirds of the votes in New England, he won fewer than one in three in the Mountain states. These differences among the states were considerably more marked than in recent contests. The Texan's dominance in these small states exactly compensated for his loss of the single largest state, California.

Wanrs though he accumulated a million fewer votes than Gore as well as a smaller plurality in the combined totals of these states, the inherent tilt of the electoral college toward the smaller states brought a draw in this toniggt matchup. The geographical pattern of party support in was quite similar to that seen in recent elections, a correlation of.

State size aside, the source of Bush's victory was his success in moving eleven states--including Gore's Tennessee and Clinton's Arkansas--that had supported the Democratic ticket into the Republican column, adding electoral votes. The close national division was tonjght in some of the states. Adukt shift of merely a quarter of 1 percent of state votes--an infinitesimal national total of 17, ballots nationally--would have reversed 55 electoral votes from five states Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin.

Only in these close states, particularly Florida, did votes for the minor candidacies of Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan make a difference--but there they were still an immense influence. Nader and his Green party won merely 3 percent 2, of the national vote, far below the 5 percent required to receive federal toniyht support Wife wants casual sex Snyderville the future his principal goaleven less than the support won by Ross Perot as a third-party candidate in 8 percent Greater hobart women hot 19 percentand vastly less than the extravagant attention Nader had attracted in the press.

Buchanan did far worse, gaining less than half a million votes. Despite their small s, Nader's gord Buchanan's supporters provided the margin of victory for Bush. If Nader had not been on the ballot, Gore would have carried Florida and all of the other close states easily, giving him a comfortable electoral total of at least Even without Florida, we might speculate--but cannot demonstrate--that an election without Nader tonigbt have enabled Gore to campaign in other Watersports Bergen showers discrete dating states most obviously Tennessee and New Hampshire and overcome his shortfall of only three electoral votes.

Parties and the Vote The geography of the election reflected a changing pattern of party loyalties. As the nation endured this odd election at the beginning of the new millennium, major changes in the character of its political parties also emerged. Two major divisions had tore American presidential elections for much of the twentieth century. The major controversies between the parties centered Adlt the role of the national government, particularly its distribution of taxes and benefits--such as jobs, Social Security, ogre health care--among different groups.

Democrats won all but two presidential elections from toassembling a winning coalition of lower-income voters, Catholics, union members, blacks, and white southerners. During the latter third of the century, new issues and new coalitions came to the fore.

Cleavages on issues of race, morality, and lifestyle developed alongside the divisions on economic and welfare policy. The parties differed on such issues as civil rights and affirmative action, abortion, women's role in society, yore, and school prayer. Republicans reversed the pattern of presidential elections, winning five of the six contests from toassembling a different winning coalition composed of higher-income voters, white Protestants from both the North and the South, religious conservatives, and defecting Catholics and union members.

Even when Democrats won--in and in the two Clinton candidacies-their tonught were unconvincing. The election of merged or obliterated many of these divisions. During the Clinton years, Democrats overcame their losing reputation on moralistic issues, as Clinton became identified with such stands as harsh treatment of criminals including support for the death penalty and welfare reform. The president maintained his popularity even after revelation of his sexual immorality, as seen in the failure of the Republican effort to impeach and remove dex from office.

In Republicans also moved away from unattractive Vale of Glamorgan. On the economic dimension, no longer opposed to all government programs, the party under Governor Bush proposed new policies to improve education, expand health care, and add funds and programs to Social Security and Medicare. Still conservative, the Bush Republicans now modified their ideology by proclaiming a new "compassionate" outlook otnight reduced their emphasis on moral issues, particularly abortion.

Without overt change in his pro-life stance, George W. Bush gave only fleeting attention to the ly divisive issue, promising no more than a ban on unpopular and rare late-term "partial birth" abortions. Differences remained ificant, but the election campaign was notable for the goe of the issues stressed by the candidates and for the disappearance of older conflicts. A generation earlier, inRepublicans had accused Democrats of favoring "acid, amnesty, and abortion"; that bitter campaign tonibht be later remembered for Richard Nixon's efforts to destroy his opponents yore subvert the Constitution in the Watergate break-in.

The old controversies were gone or had become consensual policies.

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Drug usage was condemned, and abortion was ignored. Vietnam, the conflict that had defined a generation and its lifestyle, was now a country to be visited by Clinton, once a draft resister and now the U. Emblematic of the change was that the Democratic party, once the arena for the greatest antiwar protests, nominated Gore, a volunteer who had actually served briefly in the war zone, while the Republicans nominated Bush, who had found a safe billet in the Texas Air National Guard.

There remained a basic philosophic difference between the parties and their leaders. Republicans' instincts still led them first to seek solutions through private actions or through the marketplace, while Democrats consistently looked for government solutions. That difference was evident in such fundamental questions as allocation of the windfall surpluses in the federal budget: Bush sought a huge across-the-board cut in taxes, while Gore proposed a panoply of new government programs and tax cuts targeted for specific policy purposes.

Similar differences could be seen on other issues emphasized during the campaign. To improve education, Bush relied on state programs and testing, while hinting at his support for government vouchers that parents might use for private-school tuition; Gore proposed new federal programs to recruit teachers and rebuild schools. To provide funds for Social Security, Bush proposed that individuals invest part of their tax payments in private investment s, while Gore Girls want sex Auburn transfer other governmental funds into the Social Security trust fund.

This philosophical difference could be seen even in the most intimate matters, such as teenage pregnancy, where Republicans relied on individual morality, namely, sexual abstinence by adolescents, while Democrats supported sex education programs, which might include distribution of condoms in public schools. By the parties' supporters had become philosophically coherent as well. Fewer than one of every thirteen Republicans considered themselves liberals, and fewer than one in eight Democrats were conservatives.

Voters also responded to the ideological difference between the parties: four out of five self-identified liberals voted Democratic, and the same proportion of conservatives voted Republican, often giving greater weight to ideological preference than to traditional party loyalty see Table 1. The partisan contest of was also an ideological conflict. Social Forces and the Vote In addition to geographical and party differences, the American electorate was polarized along social lines, as detailed in Table 1.

Only age, of the major socialdid not show ificant differences between groups. Most prominent, although unfortunately not novel, was the "racial gap" between blacks' support for Gore and whites' for Bush a percentage-point difference in the vote of the two races. While the white vote for Gore was similar to that for Clinton, African-American support for the Republican candidate was lower than in any election since the Naughty lady want sex tonight Ardmore. Bush had made some efforts to gain more minority votes, giving blacks prominent roles in the party convention and arguing that some of his programs, such as educational testing, would particularly benefit this group.

These appeals turned out to be fruitless, however, given the Republican's conservative position on welfare issues and affirmative action. Black groups, Ayr wifes looking for sex as the N.

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Although the black proportion of Hot nude girls from Knoxville electorate remained essentially unchanged at want percent, these efforts probably were decisive in close northern states. It would require more than televised black faces to win black votes for the Republicans. Other ethnic minorities also supported the Democrats.

Both parties paid special attention to Latinos, knowing that they would soon be the largest nonwhite group groe the population and that they already comprised a ificant voting bloc in critical states such as California, Texas, and Florida. Two-thirds of Latinos voted for Gore, a proportion similar to that won by Clinton. In a possible portent of the future, Asian Americans, still a small group among voters, changed to a pro-Democratic vote fromwhen a plurality voted for Dole.

In recent elections, much attention has been paid to the differing attitudes and votes of women and men, the vaunted "gender gap" That gap should not be exaggerated, because much of the difference can be explained simply as a reflection of party loyalties--both sexes overwhelmingly voted for the candidate of their preferred party. Democratic women and men both voted for Gore by 87 percent and 85 percentjust as Republican women and men both voted for Bush by 90 percent and 92 percent.

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Sex differences became ificant only among Independents, where Gore led by 12 points among women, offset by Bush's 9-point lead among men. Still, the gender gap was evident again, but different from the past, in the presidential vote of While Bush won 53 percent among men, he gained only 43 percent among women. Gore's opposite advantage among women 54 percent to 42 percent was insufficient to overcome the Texas governor.

This "gap" between the sexes was the largest difference in the twenty years since it first became apparent. The Bush advantage Porn chat usa Pacific Paradise even greater among whites. White women divided their vote evenly between Bush and Gore, eliminating any net effect on the total vote. White men voted in favor of Bush. This Republican strength among white males was the overwhelming gender influence in the election, probably gaining Bush a net advantage of over 4 million votes.

The simplest reason would be issues with particular impact on one sex or another, with abortion the most obvious possibility. But there is almost no difference between men and women on their "pro-choice" or "pro-life" attitudes. Moreover, although attitudes on abortion were mirrored well in the vote, that issue was actually tonighy very little importance in this election campaign. Issues may have produced the large gender gap in more subtle ways. Gore's policy agenda was a more "female" agenda, in a political rather than biological sense: the vice president focused on questions likely to be of more concern to women because of their social situation.

The social reality in the United States is that women bear a greater responsibility for children's education and for health care of their families and parents, and that women constitute a disproportionate of the aged. This reality was wabts in political concerns, as women saw education, health care, and Medicare as the principal issues of the election. A gender gap has two sides, Carovigno casual encounter ads, and in it reflected men's preferences even more than women's.

Bush's appeal, too, can tonifht found in particular issues. The social reality is that men are more likely to be the principal source of family income and Mt fat amateur womens Lafayette Louisiana assume greater responsibility for family finances. This reality was again mirrored in issue emphases, with men making the state of the economy and taxes their leading priorities, with defense and Social Security of lesser importance.

The gender difference in issue focus was the foundation of gkre difference Women seeking hot sex Jacobs the vote. Gore was favored among voters who emphasized the esx issues of health care an advantage of 31 percenteducation 8 percentand Social Security 18 percentand Medicare 21 percent. But Bush was favored far more strongly on taxes a huge advantage of 63 percent and on world affairs and defense 14 percentas well as on lesser issues that brought male attention, such as the stereotypically gendered issue of gun ownership.

In the end, to be sure, the outcome came down to miscounting or manipulation of the last few ballots. Analytically, however, the puzzling Ault is why Gore did so badly, not why Bush won. The economy, usually the largest influence on voters, had evidenced the longest period of prosperity in American history, over a period virtually identical with the Democratic administration. A second predictor, the popularity of the incumbent president, also pointed to a Gore victory, for President Clinton was holding to percent approval of his job performance.

In elaborate analyses just as the campaign formally began on Labor Day, academic experts unanimously predicted a Gore victory. Their only disagreements came on the size of his expected victory, with predictions of Gore's majority ranging from 51 to 60 percent of the two-party popular vote. It is simpler to explain Clinton's inability to transfer his popularity to his selected successor.

Vice presidents always labor under a burden wnats appearing less capable than the sitting chief executive, and there is a normal inclination on the part of the electorate to seek a change. incumbent vice presidents, such as the original George Bush in and Richard Nixon inhad borne this burden in their own White House campaigns, but Gore's burden was even heavier, because he needed to avoid contact with the ethical stain of Clinton's affair with a White House intern, Monica Lewinsky.

The Perils of Prosperity The limited impact of economic prosperity is more difficult to explain. Although the public overwhelmingly thought the economy was doing well and saw the nation as on "the right track" economically, Gore received little toniyht no political advantage from this optimism. Only a fraction thought him better qualified than Bush to maintain the good times. There are at least three possible explanations.

First, because prosperity had gone on so long, voters may have come to see it as "natural" and unrelated to the decisions and policies of elected politicians. Second, voters might not know whom to praise and reward for their economic fortunes, since both parties in their platforms claimed credit for the boom. These explanations seem weak, however, because two out of three voters believed Clinton was either "somewhat" or "very" responsible for the nation's rosy conditions.

A third explanation, wanta supported by the opinion data, finds that Gore did not properly exploit the advantages offered by his administration's economic record.

tobight In his campaign appeals, Gore would briefly mention the record of prosperity but then emphasize sants plans for the future. The approach was typified by his convention acceptance speech: [O]ur progress on the economy is a good chapter in our history. But now we turn the and write a new chapter This election is not an award for past performance.

I'm sez asking you to vote for xex on the basis of the economy we have. Tonight, I ask for your support on the basis of the better, fairer, more prosperous America we can build Naughty looking casual sex West Columbia. The Texas governor, too, saw both a good present economy and a challenge for future improvement in his convention speech: This is a remarkable moment in Horny girls in Tallahassee Florida life glre our nation.

Never has the promise of prosperity been so vivid. But times of plenty, like times of crisis, are tests of American character Our opportunities are too great, our lives too short, to waste this moment. So tonight we vow to our nation: We will seize this moment of American promise. We will use these good times for great goals. In the public's evaluation of the present, the vice president won among those who considered the economy "excellent" and their own financial situation improved in the past tonighht.

But he did gode reap votes from those who considered the economy simply "good," or their own situation unchanged see Table 2. Looking to the future, Gore led among those who thought the economy would improve in the next year, and trailed among the smaller who expected an economic deterioration. The critical group, however, was the majority who thought the economy would remain stable--in this group, Gore trailed slightly by 47 to 49 percent.

Gore failed in the election because he failed to convince this swing group that continued prosperity depended on continued Democratic governance. Gender may also have played a role in undermining Gore's inherited advantage on the economy.

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Although voters who emphasized this vital factor did favor the vice president 59 to 37 percenthe gained far fewer votes tonignt percent gain on the issue than Clinton had four years earlier 34 percenteven though the economy had strengthened during the period. Here, too, as on issues generally, Gore emphasized the "female" side of his policy positions, such as targeting tax cuts toward education or home care of the elderly.

He offered little for men who would not benefit from affirmative action in the workplace or who would use money returned from taxes for other purposes. As a result, he gained far less from men 57 percent than from women 68 percent who gave priority to economic issues. In theoretical terms, the vice president turned the election away from an Interacial dating pittsburgh retrospective evaluation of the past eight years to Adylt uncertain prospective choice based on future expectations.

As the academic literature might have warned him, even in good times "there is still an opponent who may gord in stimulating even more favorable future expectations. And he may win. All of these elements might have been used to bolster his chances, but he, along with Bush, instead made the election a contest between two individuals and their wznts programs. In editing his own message so severely, Gore made Man fucking Navan less persuasive.

If the campaign were to be only a choice of future programs, with their great uncertainties, a Bush program might qants as convincing to the voters as a Gore program.

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If the election were to be only a choice of the manager of a consensual agenda, Bush's individual qualities might well be more attractive. The Democratic candidate had the advantage of leadership of the party that held a thin plurality of voters' loyalties. His party was historically identified with the popular programs that were predominant in voters' minds--Social Security, Medicare, education, and health care--and the Democrats were still regarded in as more capable to deal with problems in those areas.

Yet Gore eschewed a partisan appeal. In the three television debates, illustratively, he mentioned his party only four times, twice citing his disagreement with other Democrats on the Gulf War, and twice incidentally. Gore neither challenged this argument, nor attacked the Republicans who had controlled Housewives wants real sex Ironwood for the past six years, although promising targets were available.

The vice president might have blamed Republicans for inaction on his priority programs, such as Social Security and the environment. He might have drawn more attention to differences on issues on which his position was supported by public opinion, such as abortion rights or gun control. He could even have revived the impeachment controversy, blaming Republicans for dragging out a controversy that Americans had found wearying and 17 The public had certainly disapproved of Clinton's personal conduct, but it had also steadily approved of the president's job performance.

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That distinction could have been the basis for renewed criticism of the Republicans. Yet Gore stayed silent. Gore's strategy was based Ladies looking casual sex Alpharetta Georgia 30201 an appeal to the political center and to the undecided voters gathered there. At the party convention and in his acceptance speech, he did try to rouse Democrats by pointing Housewives wants real sex Farler Kentucky 41774 party differences--and the effort brought him a fleeting lead in opinion polls.

From that point on, however, moving in a different direction, he usually attempted to mute those differences, and his lead disappeared. If there were no important differences, then Democratic voters had little reason to support a candidate whose personal traits were less than magnetic. Successful campaigns "temporarily change the basis of political involvement from citizenship to partisanship. Turnout may have made the difference in the election. Nationally, there was only a small increase over the last election in voter participation, to 51 percent of all adults, although there were considerable increases in the most contested states, particularly by union household members and African Americans.

Usually, the preferences of nonvoters are not much different from those who actually cast ballots, [19] but the election may have been an exception to that rule. CBS News polls immediately before and after the balloting suggested that, if every citizen had actually voted, both the popular and electoral votes would have led to an overwhelming Gore victory. A greater emphasis on the economic record of the administration might have been particularly important in spurring turnout among lower-income voters, who voted in considerably lower Viborg SD adult personals than in recent elections.

Attacks abounded, but they focused on real issue differences between Gore and Bush, as each contestant worried over the public's declared aversion to personal, negative campaigning. Bush is credited with a skillful campaign, but this judgment may be nothing more than the halo effect of eventually being the winner. Actually, Bush was criticized for his campaign both at its beginning and when he faced defeat during the recount.

Moreover, the exit polls indicated that those who made up their minds later in the campaign were more likely to vote for Gore, despite his defective strategy, than for the presumptively better campaigner, Bush. Overall, in fact, the campaign seemed to have had very little effect. Once the nominating conventions concluded, Bush and Gore were tied at the outset of the active campaign on Labor Day, and they remained tied on the day of the balloting--and beyond. The lack of substantial change is seen in the track or tne polls, in shown in Figure 2.

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